Mar 3, 2023; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Florida quarterback Anthony Richardson (QB11) speaks to the press at the NFL Combine at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports
- Anthony Richardson is tied for the second shortest odds to be the first pick in the NFL Draft
- Richardson’s NFL Draft odds were as long as 80-1 back in January, but now sit at +350
- Check out the latest NFL Number 1 Draft Pick odds below, plus which team is most likely to draft Richardson
It seems every year a quarterback soars up the odds board leading up to the NFL Draft to challenge for the number one selection. 2023 is no exception. Florida’s Anthony Richardson, owner of just 13 career collegiate starts, is the hot QB prospect on everyone’s radar these days after wowing at the combine.
NFL Number 1 Draft Pick Odds
|Will McDonald IV
Richardson’s crazy athleticism and rocket launcher arm have propelled him to the second shortest price tag to go first overall in the NFL Draft odds. He’s currently listed at +350, tied with Ohio State’s CJ Stroud, trailing only Alabama’s Bryce Young.
Odds as of March 7, 2023, at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Anthony Richardson’s Meteoric Rise
It wasn’t long ago that Richardson was considered a borderline first-round talent. In early January, he was 80-1 to go first overall, but then the hype started to build.
Videos of his blazing speed and elite arm talent started circulating on Twitter, and it wasn’t long before he was priced at +2750 on February 21st. His odds have been shortening ever since, and after turning in arguably the greatest QB combine ever, he’s now a legit threat to go first overall.
Anthony Richardson’s combine performance was legendary 🔥 pic.twitter.com/meSSYDegP2
— PFF (@PFF) March 7, 2023
Richardson ran a blazing 4.43 40-yard dash at 6-4, 244 pounds. He had a 40.5-inch vertical and did enough in the throwing drills to reassure scouts his accuracy issues are a bit overblown. Many experts are comping him to Cam Newton and Daunte Culpepper, but his athletic profile suggests he could be even better.
The Case Against Richardson Going Number One
That’s not to say, his lack of experience and big-time production should be ignored. Richardson was a full-time starter for only a single season. He threw just 393 passes at the collegiate level, completing only 53.8% of them. His career 24-to-15 TD-to-INT rate is underwhelming to say the least, especially stacked next to the other top QB prospects.
Young threw 79 touchdowns over the last two years alone, while Stroud tossed 41 TD a year ago. Both Young and Stroud are safer prospects than Richardson, but they don’t possess the same ceiling.
The last prospect we saw with these kinds of traits, and this little experience was Trey Lance. The 49ers gave up a King’s ransom to move up to third overall to select him, and so far the return has been disappointing.
If you’re selecting first overall, it’s hard to imagine passing on Young. Sure, there are size concerns, but his pedigree is exceptional. He was a National Champion, a Heisman Trophy winner, and a safe bet to be a starter in the NFL for a long time to come.
Richardson’s Most Likely Landing Spot
Richardson’s chances of busting are so much higher, but if you’re a team searching for an answer at QB, his ceiling is what you’re banking on. You’re not trying to hit a double or a triple, you’re swinging for the fences.
This brings us to which team should roll the dice on him. Carolina has the shortest odds to select Richardson, and the Panthers are on the record as saying they want to find their QB of the future in this year’s draft.
Odds to Draft Anthony Richardson
|Las Vegas Raiders
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers
However, the recent hire of Frank Reich suggests they’d be more comfortable with a more traditional pocket passer. That’s been the memo of his offenses in the past, with names like Andrew Luck, Phillip Rivers, Carson Wentz and Matt Ryan quarterbacking his squads.
The Colts have the second shortest price tag to grab Richardson, but their owner seems determined to get up to number one to select Young. The Seahawks and Raiders check in next, but Seattle is no longer in a position to draft a QB after locking up Geno Smith. Las Vegas meanwhile, is in win-now mode with their roster, and Richardson would clearly benefit from at least a year studying under a veteran signal caller.
Which is why the Lions make the most sense. Their roster is ready to win now, and have stability with Jared Goff under center for two more years. Detroit can afford to bring in Richardson and let him sit for a year, before unleashing him on the rest of the NFL.
Let’s get Anthony Richardson to Detroit with Ben Johnson
Take advantage of drafting in the top 10, Lions. Because the goal is to not be in this spot again.
— Josh Norris (@JoshNorris) March 4, 2023
At that point, Detroit has the chance to be a championship contender. They already have a fantastic offensive line, and are loaded at the skill positions with D’Andre Swift, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams. The Lions also have pick number 18 in this year’s draft, affording them the luxury to grab Richardson at six, and then address one of their big defensive needs later in the first round.
Pick: Detroit Lions to Draft Anthony Richardson (+550)
As SBD’s resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he’d rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.