After 23 seasons in the National Football League, legendary quarterback Tom Brady retired from the league for a second time in early 2023. New rumors point to Brady considering a return, which could impact the sports betting odds for NFL teams and the NFL MVP race.
What Happened: Brady played 23 seasons with the New England Patriots and Tampa Bay Buccaneers and walked away from the sport as the leader in many categories including passing yards and passing touchdowns.
After previously unretiring and rejoining the NFL, some were hesitant to believe Brady was truly done with his playing career and set on his broadcasting career with Fox Corp FOXFOXA.
News that Brady was taking a gap year before joining Fox and several NFL teams being linked to free agent quarterback signings, including Brady’s childhood favorite San Francisco 49ers have led to many rumors of a comeback.
On Tuesday, a new rumor popped up involving Brady.
NFL expert Rich Eisen said there was strong chatter about Brady during the NFL Scouting Combine and the potential of the quarterback not being “done after all” in the NFL.
“Folks are saying keep an eye on Miami,” Eisen said referring to the Miami Dolphins, who previously had an interest in Brady.
Brady somewhat denied the rumor using an analogy of getting his daughter a kitten.
The rumors likely aren’t going away until the start of the 2023 NFL season.
Sports Betting Odds: As one of the most successful quarterbacks of all time, Brady was popular among sports bettors.
Brady finished with a career record of 213-157-11 against the spread, helping bettors win 58% of the time. As an underdog, Brady was 51-14 against the spread, covering 80% of the time.
In the NFL Playoffs, Brady was 25-21-1 against the spread and 35-12 overall.
With Brady as quarterback, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were the favorite to win the NFC in the 2022 season.
“The Bucs were a popular option for casual bettors entering the season,” Covers Senior Industry Analyst Jason Logan told Benzinga. “But after covering the spread in the first two games, Tampa Bay went on a 0-6 against the spread run between Week 3 and Week 9 and lost the trust of the market quickly.”
The Bucs finished with a 4-13-1 against the spread record in the 2022 season, the worst in the NFL.
Logan tells Benzinga that a team signing Brady to be the quarterback in the 2023 season would impact the NFL Futures, but would mostly impact the teams in the division.
“Tom Brady to Miami would shake up the AFC East odds. The Bills would remain the favorites, but the Jets — who are a +310 second overall choice in the division due to rumors that Aaron Rodgers may land there — would likely drop back pending Rodgers’ decision and Miami would trim a bit from its current price of +400.”
Logan said a move by Brady to the Las Vegas Raiders could bring the odds down on the team to win the AFC West, but they’d still be behind the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angles Chargers.
“Brady to San Francisco wouldn’t change the pecking order in the NFC West, but would make the 49ers a more expensive odds-on favorite than their current price of -165.”
At DraftKings Inc DKNG, the current Super Bowl odds are:
Kansas City Chiefs: +600
Buffalo Bills: +700
San Francisco 49ers: +800
Philadelphia Eagles: +900
Cincinnati Bengals: +1000
Outside of the top five candidates, the Jets are listed at +2500, the Dolphins at +4000 and the Raiders at +4000, all odds that could see significant changes linked to a move by Brady.
Along with the team odds, Brady could also impact the Super Bowl MVP betting odds, with quarterbacks being popular bets.
“His MVP odds again would vary depending on the team he goes to and the chances of their success,” Logan told Benzinga.
“A guy like Tua Tagovailoa — who Brady could replace — is listed at +1,600. Brady is still a better QB than the majority of passers in the league, and would likely end up in the +1,500 range, behind Mahomes, Burrow, Allen, Herbert and Hurts.”
Mahomes, Burrow, Allen, Herbert and Hurts have odds of +650, +700, +750, +1000, and +1100, respectively, at DraftKings.
Before bettors rush out to bet on Brady, Logan said he likely won’t be added to the odds by sportsbooks until he’s actually confirmed to sign with a team.
Photo: Brad Muckenthaler via Wikimedia Commons