The Denver Nuggets (46-20) visit the San Antonio Spurs (16-49) on Friday night! Action tips off at 8:10 p.m. ET. Below we continue our NBA odds series with a Nuggets-Spurs prediction, pick, and how to watch.
Denver has won four of their last five games and remains in first place in the Western Conference. The Nuggets covered 55% of their games while 50% went over the projected point total. San Antonio is coming off two straight losses and sits in 14th place in the West. The Spurs covered 40% of their games while 57% went over. This will be the third and final meeting of the season between the conference foes. Denver holds a 2-0 advantage although they haven’t matched up since November.
Here are the Nuggets-Spurs NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel
NBA Odds: Nuggets-Spurs Odds
Denver Nuggets: -13 (-110)
San Antonio Spurs: +13 (-110)
Over: 236 (-110)
Under: 236 (-110)
How To Watch Nuggets vs. Spurs
TV: Altitude, Bally Southwest
Stream: NBA League Pass
Time: 8:00 p.m. ET/ 5:00 p.m. PT
*Watch NBA games LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why The Nuggets Could Cover The Spread
Denver is coming off a rough blowout loss at home to Chicago but they remain the clear top team in the Western Conference. The Nuggets have built a 6.5-game lead in the conference thanks largely to their elite offense. Denver averages 116.8 PPG – the seventh-highest mark in the league. They are especially strong on the fast break and in the paint where they rank fifth in scoring. The key to their high-powered offense is their passing as the Nuggets’ 29.2 APG ranks second in the league. That bodes well for their chances of covering tonight considering the Spurs get carved up by good passing teams, allowing the most assists per game.
The Nuggets are led by two-time reigning MVP Nikola Jokic. The Joker is having yet another tremendous season and is the betting favorite to win yet another MVP thanks to 24.3 PPG, 11.8 RPG, and 10.0 APG. He manages to put up those numbers while still shooting 63% from the floor, 40% from three, and 82% from the line. A nightly triple-double threat, Jokic can sometimes get into a habit of over-deferring to his teammates considering he has not eclipsed 18 points in four consecutive games. That being said, he torched the Spurs for 23.5 PPG and 10.0 APG in their first two wins over San Antonio and should see similar success tonight.
The X-factor for Denver tonight is guard Jamal Murray. Murray has been solid this season, averaging 20.1 PPG and 6.0 APG. He had a strong night the last time Denver visited San Antonio, scoring 19 points and dishing out six assists. That being said, Murray struggled mightily in their most recent loss to Chicago, scoring 11 points on 27% shooting. Murray certainly has the talent to bounce back tonight – something that will be essential if they want to cover a hefty road spread.
Why The Spurs Could Cover The Spread
San Antonio has been officially eliminated from playoff contention as the Spurs wind down a rebuilding season. However, the Spurs remain a sneaky offensive team thanks to their ability to share the basketball. San Antonio ranks fifth in the league with 26.8 APG as they assist on 63% of their baskets. Most of those assists come on cuts off of drives as they rank second in the NBA in points in the paint.
The Spurs have been incredibly balanced since the All-Star break with four players averaging between 15 and 19 points per game. Keldon Johnson paces the team in scoring over that span with 18.3 PPG. He’s been efficient overall, shooting 50% despite poor three-point shooting numbers. Johnson is far from just a scorer, however, as he also chips in 5.8 RPG and 4.5 APG. The 23-year-old could be in for an even bigger night tonight considering how well he’s performed against Denver this season. In two prior matchups, Johnson averaged 27.5 PPG while shooting 59% overall. He’ll likely need a similar big night if the Spurs want to cover against the West’s top team.
The X-factor for San Antonio tonight is rookie Jeremy Sochan. Sochan has flashed sky-high potential throughout the season and is really putting it together since the All-Star break. In four games, the rookie averaged 17.8 PPG and 7.8 RPG.
Final Nuggets-Spurs Prediction & Pick
While the Nuggets are a vastly superior team to the Spurs, Denver is coming off a poor home showing against the Bulls. Additionally, San Antonio has had five days to prepare and notably holds a 15-15 home record ATS. Throw in that the Spurs kept things within six points the last time they met and I’ll ride the underdog Spurs tonight.
Final Nuggets-Spurs Prediction & Pick: San Antonio Spurs +13 (-110)