With the 2023 NFL Draft right around the corner, we’re eyeing betting opportunities in the Coach of the Year market for next season. Here are the 2023 NFL Coach of the Year odds from our best NFL betting sites and our top NFL picks based on the opening NFL odds.
There are a few key trends to keep in mind when approaching the Coach of the Year betting market.
A first-year head coach has won the award in four of the past six seasons, and it’s been 32 years since the winner hasn’t led his team to a winning record or a playoff berth. The last to accomplish both feats and still earn the honors was Dallas Cowboys head coach Jimmy Johnson during the 1990 campaign.
It’s also notable that five of the past seven recipients of the award led their team to the postseason after missing the playoffs the year prior.
Here is our look at the best odds for the 2023 NFL Coach of the Year winner, along with a pair of picks.
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NFL Coach of the Year 2023 odds
|Matt Eberflus||Bears||+1300 ❄️||+2000 🔥|
|Frank Reich||Panthers||+1400 ❄️||+1600 🔥|
|Robert Saleh||Jets||+1400 ❄️||+2000 🔥|
|Kevin Stefanski||Browns||+2000 ❄️||+2500 🔥|
|Demeco Ryans||Texans||+2500 🔥||+1600 ❄️|
|Mike Tomlin||Steelers||+2000 ❄️||+3000 🔥|
|Doug Pederson||Jaguars||+2200 🔥||+2000 ❄️|
|Dennis Allen||Saints||+2200 ❄️||+2500 🔥|
|Brandon Staley||Chargers||+2200 🔥||+2000 ❄️|
|Zac Taylor||Bengals||+2200 ❄️||+2500 🔥|
|Shane Steichen||Colts||+2200 🔥||+2000 ❄️|
|Pete Carroll||Seahawks||+2500 🔥||+2000 ❄️|
NFL Coach of the Year 2023 best bets
- Robert Saleh, New York Jets (+2000 via FanDuel) – March 7
- Doug Pederson, Jacksonville Jaguars (+2200 via DraftKings) – March 7
NFL Coach of the Year 2023 odds: Favorites
Dan Campbell (+1100 via DraftKings, FanDuel)
This will be Campbell’s third season leading the Detroit Lions, so he doesn’t check the first-year-coach box. Additionally, though the Lions missed the playoffs last year, they did post a winning record (9-8). I’m not anticipating the Lions roaring to 12 or 13 wins next season, and I don’t think we’ll see enough overall improvement from Detroit to warrant Campbell winning Coach of the Year honors in 2023.
Sean Payton (+1200 via DraftKings, FanDuel)
There’s already been enough betting support for Payton in this market to drive his odds down and zap any edge. I’m not buying the hype, either. The Denver Broncos face an uphill climb to a playoff position out of the AFC West, and quarterback Russell Wilson’s two-year tailspin is a Mile High red flag for me.
NFL Coach of the Year 2023 odds: Contenders
Robert Saleh (+2000 via FanDuel)
With the New York Jets talking to four-time MVP quarterback Aaron Rodgers, there’s value in backing the New York head coach in this betting market. The Jets went from allowing the most points per game (29.6) in the league in 2021 to the fourth-fewest (18.6) in Saleh’s first season, and improved quarterback play would pave the way for Gang Green to punch a playoff ticket.
Matt Eberflus (+2000 via FanDuel)
This is a simple handicap. Eberflus could easily win the 2023 Coach of the Year Award if the Chicago Bears make the playoffs. Chicago has the first overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, oodles of cap space to upgrade the roster, and quarterback Justin Fields posted video-game numbers last year. Still, these are Da Bears, and I peg Chicago as at least another year away from turning in a winning season and flirting with a postseason berth.
Doug Pederson (+2200 via DraftKings)
The Jacksonville Jaguars and franchise quarterback Trevor Lawrence are on the rise. Jacksonville was an analytic juggernaut in 2022, and Pederson leading the Jags to 12 or 13 wins would position him for serious consideration for this award. I expect he’ll be trading at a much lower number by Week 1, too.
NFL Coach of the Year 2023 odds: Long shots
Mike Tomlin (+3000 via FanDuel)
Though I don’t expect Tomlin to win this award, this will be his 17th season leading the Pittsburgh Steelers, and he’s never had a losing record or won the Coach of the Year. Additionally, if Pittsburgh won double-digit games and earned a postseason berth after missing the playoffs in 2022, voters rewarding Tomlin for his long-standing excellence shouldn’t surprise anyone.
Recent NFL Coach of the Year winners
Odds from SportsOddsHistory.com.
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