NFL Picks Week 14: Early Predictions for Texans vs Jets, Panthers vs Saints


NFL Picks Week 14: Early Predictions

On Sunday night, our betting analysts found two games to target for their early NFL Week 14 picks and predictions. Check out the spreads and over/under they’ve already bet.

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By Brandon Anderson

If books are going to list a Saints team coached by Dennis Allen as a favorite of nearly a touchdown, then I have to bet against them on principle.

Yeah, the Panthers aren’t that inspiring, but they didn’t look that bad against the Buccaneers. They held their own and fought hard enough to cover the spread. Bryce Young was confident and showed some pocket presence, Chuba Hubbard went off for 104 rushing yards and two touchdowns, and Jonathan Mingo was a presence downfield.

As for the Saints … well, they were in a 21-0 hole in the first quarter against the Lions before coming to life late. This Week 14 matchup with the Panthers just doesn’t look good for them.

The Saints are 31st in pass block win rate (not good against Brian Burns and Carolina’s pass rush) and 32nd in pass rush. Their defense was 30th in DVOA over their last five games entering Week 13.

Now, some fun Saints trends (including both quarterbacks since Derek Carr got injured):

  • Dennis Allen: 5-16-1 ATS (24%) as a favorite; never been favored by more than six
  • Derek Carr: 18-37-1 ATS (33%); lost 15 of last 24 games outright
  • Jameis Winston: 8-18-1 ATS (31%); 2-9 ATS (18%) as a favorite of more than three

The Saints have covered just twice this season and they are 1-8-1 ATS as favorites by -5.9. Don’t forget New Orleans barely beat Carolina (Week 2; 20-17) in Young’s second pro start.

Pick: Panthers +6.5

By Ricky Henne

The Jets benched Zach Wilson in favor of Tim Boyle, who they then benched Sunday in favor of Trevor Siemian.

It really doesn’t matter who is under center, though, does it? It’s painful to watch the Jets offense. They average the third-fewest points per game (14.3), but have been especially atrocious of late, averaging just 9.7 over their last six games.

Meanwhile, the Texans aren’t only one of the league’s best feel-good stories, but their games are among the most exciting. They’ve played eight straight one-score games, with the outcome decided in the final quarter.

That ends next week, though. The Texans rank sixth in total offense, and the Jets have been blown out lately by teams in the top 10. They gave up 34 points to the Dolphins’ top-ranked offense in Week 12 and 32 to the Bills’ fourth-ranked unit in Week 11.

I love the Texans laying less than a touchdown and jumped on it immediately. I suspect the line will creep up as the week goes on, so if you can grab it 7.5 or less, I’d highly consider it.

Pick: Texans -6

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By Brandon Anderson

We’ve back on Texans island. Sadly the market has caught up with Houston (-6.5) so I’m on to the under.

As we all know, the Jets offense is a dumpster fire. They’ve averaged 9.7 PPG over their last six games — topping out at 13 points (twice) — and some of that output is from their defense.

So hypothetically if the Jets score 10 points, can the Texans score 28? Not sure about that — Houston’s scored 22 points or fewer in all but four games this season. The Texans are good, but the Jets defense is still elite and will be the best unit that takes the field in this game. New York ruins quarterbacks, so C.J. Stroud could be in for a rough one.

Some under trends …

  • Unders at 37 or below over the last four calendar years: 28-7-1 (80%)
  • Unders 38 or below this season: 16-4-1 (80%) by 5.3 PPG
  • Unders for games with a home ‘dog: 62% over the last three seasons

I’m not abandoning the Texans, but we need to fade the hype a little bit for this one.

Pick: Under 37

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